Rating my Predictions for 2009 - Looking 2010 - KFed and Britney still not together. .

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• Many Newspapers continue to struggle those that have high debt levels will consolidate, retrench through bankruptcy, or good old liquidation. .continue trend of starting to limit home delivery or not produce “physical paper” and go with pure web strategy like the Christian Science Monitor.

B – Right on this “old” media is dead . . release of new ereaders like Apple’s ISlate or whatever it is going to be called. . continues to kill physical newspaper companies. . Amazon will release a color screened Kindle by year end. .

• Yahoo gets bought – Maybe News Corp, maybe Disney, probably Microsoft. This train wreck has got to end. (What was Jerry Yang and the board thinking when they rebuffed multiple offers from Microsoft?)

B- – Microsoft tried then did search deal. . .whatever next party is over . . Google has won. .

• Facebook blows away MySpace Already happening MySpace is the Yahoo toFacebook’s Google . . .Niche social networking like Linkedin find place and start to chip at dominance of “general” social networking sites.

A- – No brainer

• Android becomes more prominent Google’s open source smart phone OS challenges major phone Operating Systems with the exception of Apple’s Iphone.  Google releases smart phone with major carrier that is free and is supported by advertising. Android powered Netbook released by year-end

B – yes and no . . before my time with free Google phone but will eventually happen

• Iphone becomes more dominant moves into second spot behind Nokia for the most handsets shipped 2009. Apple release Iphone nano smaller, more compact, cheaper

B- – no Iphone nano but keeps whipping more and world best-selling smart phone

• Twitter becomes hottest and most prevalent new social networking technology

A – yep right on

• RFID technology begins to take hold in retail starts to supplement bar code technology to enhance retail experience. .ie checkout and inventory control. Huge shot in the dark without Wal-Mart this will never happen this is an idea whose time has come but will probably be pushed out a few years.

D- Wrong too early. . buy some more time will happen. .eventually

• Google tries to make big social networking push (again) via its own technology or through a variety of in house development and key acquisitions (Twitter)

F- Still struggling in this area. .no key deals

• New Apple products will include Netbook, New Mac Mini, and Iphone Nano

D – Tablet coming

• Hottest Retailer – Justice

B – yep for tweens -but these are probably hotter. .  Aeropostale . .Hollister. . Pacsun. . Juicy Couture. .really like  Forever 21 and Tilly’s

• Big Three turns into Big Two Ford has legs, Chrysler has no value with the exception of Jeep division and Hemi technology, GM who  knows  . . . but if they were smart they would jettison US operations and focus on international.

B – Chrysler now owned by Fiat, GM is a shell and Ford by far the strongest and still has legs

• Real Estate market through most of the US gets worse before it gets better no recovery until spring 2010 at earliest. Although I do see Obama administration switch some focus of bailouts from big companies to homeowners who are in danger of foreclosure.

A – Obama administration stepped up with tax incentives and low interest rates. .

• Brittany and Kfed reconcile and become greatest husband-wife team since Sonny and Cher

F- Sorry . .what can I say. .

Predictions 2010

1. Location aware technology becomes huge. .  serving up ads and social networking . . to name a few . .Twitter and Facebook location aware posts going to happen this year. . providers will know where you are and serve up some really cool . .apps and services
2. Hottest Retailer. . Slow Growth . .Privately owned but very cool store. . Tilley’s . . . Southern California cool. .combined with discipled financials and expansion strategy. .
3. Green  continues to be hot. .  Solar cheaper. . Chinese manufacturer’s continue to make cheaper and cheaper cells squeezing other manufacturers. .wind is big. .  solar will be bigger. .
4. e-commerce continues to grow . .but. . .consolidation starts happening. . would love to see Amazon buy Ebay. .but may have anti-trust issues. . Amazon continues to dominate and make good acquisitions like Zappo’s this year.. . will continue to grow. .  nobody can beat Amazon online including Wal-Mart. .  this year. .  after 2010 . .look for Wal-Mart going straight at them. .
5. Google phone coming sold directly by Google over T-Mobile network . .Motorola and other partners not happy but no other alternative. .  continue to get beaten in smart phone market by Apple
6. Apple in US brings in other partner for network other then ATT. . I say Verizon. . total long shot is Sprint Nextel. . which in turn may be bought by Comcast in 2010. . maybe T-mobile gets bought by Google. .maybe antitrust issue but would be very cool. .and allow Google to deliver universal WiMax type of service to United States. .
7. Google Chrome OS released . . Chrome browser continue to take market share. . hurt Microsoft and Firefox but biggest casualty will be Safari and MacOS . . this year
8. Apple tablet released. . Color screen Kindle released. .eventually be two horse race between Apple and Amazon. . in tablet. . ereader category
9. KFed gets back in action. .  gets back in shape and cleans up. . and reconciles with Britney. .

Happy New Year. . .

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